Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The role of modeling in evaluation of maternal and child health programs: using the lives saved tool to help answer core evaluation questions.

This paper explains how The Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a computer-based model that estimates the impact of scaling up interventions on stillbirths, maternal, neonatal and child health, can contribute to evaluations of programs being delivered at scale to improve maternal and child health. LiST can be used to estimate the impact of a program in advance, allowing planners to refine, streamline and set appropriate program targets. LiST can also be used to estimate the impact of a program, which is particularly useful given the high costs of measuring changes in population health. Finally, LiST can be used to estimate the relative contributions of different interventions or sets of interventions within programs that are found to have a positive impact. The latest version of LiST allows users to manipulate both utilization and quality of service to generate estimates of effective coverage. In addition, a new, web-based version of LiST is now available, with a simpler and more streamlined interface designed to increase accessibility to beginning users. LiST modeling can help program planners, evaluators and funders respond to core evaluation questions related to program design and impact, providing evidence to support decisions about how best to use available resources to save the lives of women and children.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world.

Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. METHODS: We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8-51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10-50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. FINDINGS: Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8-18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3-51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8-44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3-38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18-23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

Drivers of the progress achieved by Peru in reducing childhood diarrhoea mortality: a country case study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially in Peru in recent decades. We documented trends in childhood diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015, along with trends in coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions and risk factors, to identify the main drivers of mortality reduction. METHODS: We conducted desk reviews on social determinants, policies and programmes, and diarrhoea-related interventions implemented during the study period. We reviewed different datasets on child mortality, and on coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions. We received input from individuals familiar with implementation of diarrhoea-related policies and programmes. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to help explain the reasons for the decline in diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015 and to predict additional reduction with further scale up of diarrhoea-related interventions by 2030. RESULTS: In Peru under-five diarrhoea mortality declined from 23.3 in 1980 to 0.8 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. The percentage of under-five diarrhoea deaths as related to total under-five deaths was reduced from 17.8% in 1980 to 4.9% in 2015. Gross domestic product increased and poverty declined from 1990 to 2015. Access to improved water increased from 56% in 1986 to 79.3% in 2015. Oral rehydrating salts (ORS) use during an episode of diarrhoea increased from 3.6% in 1986 to 32% in 2015. Vertical programmes focused on diarrhoea management with ORS were implemented successfully in the 1980s and 1990s, and were replaced by integrated crosscutting interventions since the early 2000s. LiST analyses showed that about half (53.9%) of the reduction in diarrhoea mortality could be attributed to improved water, sanitation and hygiene, 25.0% to direct diarrhoea interventions and 21.1% to nutrition. The remaining mortality could be reduced by three-quarters by 2030 with improved diarrhoea treatment and further with enhanced breastfeeding practices and reduction in stunting. LiST does not take into account the role of social determinants. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction of diarrhoeal under-five mortality in Peru can be explained by a combination of factors, including improvement of social determinants, child nutrition, diarrhoea treatment with ORS and prevention with rotavirus vaccine and increased access to water and sanitation. The already low rate of diarrhoea mortality could be further reduced by a number of interventions, especially additional use of ORS and zinc for diarrhoea treatment. Peru is a remarkable example of a country that was able to reduce childhood diarrhoea mortality by implementing interventions through vertical programmes initially, and afterwards through implementation of integrated multisectoral packages targeting prevalent illnesses and multi-causal problems like stunting.

Impact of vaccination delay on deaths averted by pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: Modeled effects in 8 country scenarios.

Delay in vaccination from schedule has been frequently documented and varies by vaccine, dose, and setting. Vaccination delay may result in the failure to prevent deaths that would have been averted by on-schedule vaccination. We constructed a model to assess the impact of delay in vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on under-five mortality. The model accounted for the week of age-specific risk of pneumococcal mortality, direct effect of vaccination, and herd protection. For each model run, a cohort of children were exposed to the risk of mortality and protective effect of PCV for each week of age from birth to age five. The model was run with and without vaccination delay and difference in number of deaths averted was calculated. We applied the model to eight country-specific vaccination scenarios, reflecting variations in observed vaccination delay, PCV coverage, herd effect, mortality risk, and vaccination schedule. As PCV is currently being scaled up in India, we additionally evaluated the impact of vaccination delay in India under various delay scenarios and coverage levels. We found deaths averted by PCV with and without delay to be comparable in all of the country scenarios when accounting for herd protection. In India, the greatest relative difference in deaths averted was observed at low coverage levels and greatest absolute difference was observed around 60% vaccination coverage. Under moderate delay scenarios, vaccination delay had modest impact on deaths averted by PCV in India across levels of coverage or vaccination schedule. Without accounting for herd protection, vaccination delay resulted in much greater failure to avert deaths. Our model suggests that realistic vaccination delay has a minimal impact on the number of deaths averted by PCV when accounting for herd effect. High population coverage can largely over-ride the deleterious effect of vaccination delay through herd protection.

Explaining progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era (1990-2015) the government in Mainland Tanzania and partners launched numerous initiatives to advance child survival including the comprehensive One Plan for Maternal Newborn and Child Health in 2008-2015 and a "sharpened" One Plan strategy in early 2014. Moving into the Sustainable Development Goal era, the government needs to learn from successes and challenges of striving towards MDG 4. METHODS: We expand previous work by presenting data for the full MDG period and sub-national results. We used data from six nationally-representative household surveys conducted between 1999 and 2015 to examine trends in coverage of 22 lifesaving maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N) interventions, nutritional status (stunting; wasting) and breastfeeding practice across Mainland Tanzania and sub-nationally in seven standardized geographic zones. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to model the relative contribution of included interventions which saved under 5 lives during the period from 2000-2015 compared to 1999 on a national level and within the seven zones. FINDINGS: Child survival and nutritional status improved across Mainland Tanzania and in each of the seven zones across the 15-year period. MNCH&N intervention coverage varied widely and across zones with several key interventions declining across Mainland Tanzania or in specific geographical zones during all or part the period. According to our national LiST model, scale-up of 22 MNCH&N interventions - together with improvements in breastfeeding practice, stunting and wasting - saved 838 460 child lives nationally between 2000 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Mainland Tanzania has made significant progress in child survival and nutritional outcomes but progress cannot be completely explained by changes in intervention coverage alone. Further examination of the implementation and contextual factors shaping these trends is important to accelerate progress in the SDG era.

Using the missed opportunity tool as an application of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for intervention prioritization.

BACKGROUND: The Missed Opportunity tool was developed as an application in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to allow users to quickly compare the relative impact of interventions. Global Financing Facility (GFF) investment cases have been identified as a potential application of the Missed Opportunity analyses in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, to use 'lives saved' as a normative factor to set priorities. METHODS: The Missed Opportunity analysis draws on data and methods in LiST to project maternal, stillbirth, and child deaths averted based on changes in interventions' coverage. Coverage of each individual intervention in LiST was automated to be scaled up from current coverage to 90% in the next year, to simulate a scenario where almost every mother and child receive proven interventions that they need. The main outcome of the Missed Opportunity analysis is deaths averted due to each intervention. RESULTS: When reducing unmet need for contraception is included in the analysis, it ranks as the top missed opportunity across the four countries. When it is not included in the analysis, top interventions with the most total deaths averted are hospital-based interventions such as labor and delivery management in the CEmOC and BEmOC level, and full treatment and supportive care for premature babies, and for sepsis/pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: The Missed Opportunity tool can be used to provide a quick, first look at missed opportunities in a country or geographic region, and help identify interventions for prioritization. While it is a useful advocate for evidence-based priority setting, decision makers need to consider other factors that influence decision making, and also discuss how to implement, deliver, and sustain programs to achieve high coverage.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. METHODS: We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs - expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) - of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. FINDINGS: We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. CONCLUSION: By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.

Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions.

BACKGROUND: Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. METHODS: We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mortality impact of eliminating inequalities in coverage distribution between wealth quintiles and urban-rural residence. RESULTS: Our analyses quantified the remaining missed opportunities in Peru, where prioritizing scale-up of facility-based case management for all small and sick babies will be most effective in mortality reduction, compared to other evidenced-based interventions that prevent maternal and child deaths. Eliminating coverage disparities between the poorest quintiles and the richest will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 22.0 and 40.6 %, while eliminating coverage disparities between those living in rural and urban areas will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 29.3 and 45.2 %. This projected neonatal mortality reduction achieved by eliminating coverage disparities is almost comparable to that already achieved by Peru over the past decade. CONCLUSIONS: Although Peru has made great strides in improving child survival, further improvement in child health, especially in newborn health can be achieved if there is universal and equitable coverage of proven, quality health facility-based interventions. The magnitude of reduction in mortality will be similar to what has been achieved in the past decade. Strengthening health system to identify, understand, and direct resources to the poor and rural areas will ensure that Peru achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Child health and nutrition in Peru within an antipoverty political agenda: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

BACKGROUND: Peru is an upper-middle-income country with wide social and regional disparities. In recent years, sustained multisectoral antipoverty programmes involving governments, political parties, and civil society have included explicit health and nutrition goals and spending increased sharply. We did a country case study with the aim of documenting Peru's progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health from 2000-13, and explored the potential determinants. METHODS: We examined the outcomes of health interventions coverage, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, and prevalence of under-5 stunting. We obtained data from interviews with key informants, a literature review of published and unpublished data, national censuses, and governmental reports. We obtained information on social determinants of health, including economic growth, poverty, unmet basic needs, urbanisation, women's education, water supply, fertility rates, and child nutrition from the annual national households surveys and the Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys. We obtained national mortality data from the Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, and calculated subnational rates from 11 surveys. Analyses were stratified by region, wealth quintiles, and urban or rural residence. We calculated coverage indicators for the years 2000-13, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the effect of changes in intervention coverage and in nutritional status on mortality. FINDINGS: From 2000 to 2013, under-5 mortality fell by 58% from 39·8 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 16·7. LiST, which was used to predict the decline in mortality arising from changes in fertility rates, water and sanitation, undernutrition, and coverage of indicators of reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health predicted that the under-5 mortality rate would fall from 39·8 to 28·4 per 1000 livebirths, accounting for 49·2% of the reported reduction. Neonatal mortality fell by 51% from 16·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 8·0. Stunting prevalence remained stable at around 30% until 2007, decreasing to 17·5% by 2013, and the composite coverage index for essential health interventions increased from 75·1% to 82·6%, with faster increases among the poor, in rural areas, and in the Andean region. Socioeconomic, urban-rural, and regional inequalities in coverage, mortality, and stunting were substantially reduced. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 47·8% to 23·9%, women with fewer than 4 years of schooling reduced from 11·5% to 6·9%, urbanisation increased from 68·1% to 75·6%, and the total fertility rate decreased from 3·0 children per woman to 2·4. We interviewed 175 key informants and they raised the following issues: economic growth, improvement of social determinants, civil society empowerment and advocacy, out-of-health and within-health-sector changes, and sustained implementation of evidence-based, pro-poor reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health interventions. INTERPRETATION: Peru has made substantial progress in reducing neonatal and under-5 mortality, and child stunting. This country is a good example of how a combination of political will, economic growth, broad societal participation, strategies focused on poor people, and increased spending in health and related sectors can achieve significant progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health. The remaining challenges include continuing to address inequalities in wealth distribution, poverty, and access to basic services, especially in the Amazon and Andean rural areas. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Importance of clothing removal in scalds.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that prompt removal of clothing after scalds lessens the severity of injury. METHODS: This experimental study and case series was carried out in the Burn Centre of a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong. An experimental burn model using Allevyn (Smith & Nephew Medical Limited, Hull, England) as a skin substitute was designed to test the effect of delayed clothing removal on skin temperature using hot water and congee. Data of patients admitted with scalding by congee over a 10-year period (January 2005 to December 2014) were also studied. RESULTS: A significant reduction in the temperature of the skin model following a hot water scald was detected only if clothing was removed within the first 10 seconds of injury. With congee scalds, the temperature of the skin model progressively increased with further delay in clothing removal. During the study period, 35 patients were admitted with congee scalds to our unit via the emergency department. The majority were children. Definite conclusions supporting the importance of clothing removal could not be drawn due to our small sample size. Nonetheless, our data suggest that appropriate prehospital burn management can reduce patient morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Prompt removal of clothing after scalding by congee may reduce post-burn morbidity.

Independent Evaluation of the Rapid Scale-Up Program to Reduce Under-Five Mortality in Burkina Faso.

We conducted a prospective evaluation of the "Rapid Scale-Up" (RSU) program in Burkina Faso, focusing on the integrated community case management (iCCM) component of the program. We used a quasi-experimental design in which nine RSU districts were compared with seven districts without the program. The evaluation included documentation of program implementation, assessments of implementation and quality of care, baseline and endline coverage surveys, and estimation of mortality changes using the Lives Saved Tool. Although the program trained large numbers of community health workers, there were implementation shortcomings related to training, supervision, and drug stockouts. The quality of care provided to sick children was poor, and utilization of community health workers was low. Changes in intervention coverage were comparable in RSU and comparison areas. Estimated under-five mortality declined by 6.2% (from 110 to 103 deaths per 1,000 live births) in the RSU area and 4.2% (from 114 to 109 per 1,000 live births) in the comparison area. The RSU did not result in coverage increases or mortality reductions in Burkina Faso, but we cannot draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the iCCM strategy, given implementation shortcomings. The evaluation results highlight the need for greater attention to implementation of iCCM programs.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of care groups in expanding population coverage of Key child survival interventions and reducing under-5 mortality: a comparative analysis using the lives saved tool (LiST).

BACKGROUND: Globally, less than half of Countdown Countries will achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds by 2015. There is growing interest in community-based delivery mechanisms to help accelerate progress. One promising approach is the use of a form of participatory mothers' groups, called Care Groups, for expanding coverage of key child survival interventions, an essential feature for achieving mortality impact. METHODS: In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of Care Group projects conducted in 5 countries in Africa and Asia in comparison to other United States Agency for International Development-funded child survival projects in terms of increasing coverage of key child survival interventions and reducing U5MR (estimated using the Lives Saved Tool, or LiST). Ten Care Group and nine non-Care Group projects were matched by country and year of program implementation. RESULTS: In Care Group project areas, coverage increases were more than double those in non-Care Group project areas for key child survival interventions (p = 0.0007). The mean annual percent change in U5MR modelled in LiST for the Care Group and non-Care Group projects was -4.80% and -3.14%, respectively (p = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Care Groups may provide a promising approach to significantly increase key child survival interventions and increase reductions in U5MR. Evaluations of child survival programs should be a top priority in global health to build a greater evidence base for effective approaches for program delivery.

Modeling potential reduction of child mortality after national scale-up of community-based treatment of childhood illnesses in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, 28,000 female health extension workers (IEWs) received training and support to provide integrated community based case management (iCCM) of childhood pneumonia, diarrhea, malaria, and se- vere malnutrition in Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a modeling exercise using two scenarios to project the potential reduction of the under five mortality, riate due io the iCCM program in the four agrarian regions of Ethiopia. METHODS. We created three projections: (1) baseline projection without iCCM; (2) a "moderate" projection using 2012 coverage data scaled up to 30% by 2015 and (3) a "best case" scenario scaled up to 80% with 50% of newborns with sepsis receiving effective treatment by 2015. RESULTS. If the 2012 coverage gains (moderate projection) were applied to the four agrarian regions, we project that the iCCM program could have saved over 10,000 additional lives per year among children age 1-59 months. If iCCM coverage reaches the, "best case" scenario, nearly 80,000 additional lives among children 1-59 months of age would be saved between 2012 and 2015. CONCLUSION. High quality iCCM, delivered and used at scale, is an important contributor to the reduction of under five mortality in rural Ethiopia. Continued investments in iCCM are critical to sustaining and improving recent declines in child mortality.

Osteonecrosis of the jaw after implant surgery in patients treated with bisphosphonates--a presentation of six consecutive cases.

BACKGROUND: Osteonecrosis of the jaws in patients treated with bisphosphonates is mostly associated with intravenous bisphosphonates while the incidence associated with oral bisphosphonates is not significant. PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to describe a series of cases of jaw osteonecrosis that may be associated with dental implant placement in patients who had taken nitrogen containing bisphosphonates via oral and/or intravenous route. PATIENTS: Six female patients were treated for osteonecrosis of the jaw after implant placement. An average age was 71.8 ± 6.5 years old and they had a history of bisphosphonate use. Two patients suffered from cancer and the other patients had osteoporosis. Two osteoporosis patients had taken only oral bisphosphonate and the other patients received intravenous bisphosphonates. RESULTS: Resection of necrotized bone, implant removal, and primary closure were performed in five patients and four patients showed uneventful healing. One patient presented recurrence at the maxilla and underwent further extraction and resection. One patient presented with an exposure of the bone after implant placement was treated with an advanced flap closure, and the implants were preserved. CONCLUSION: Unusual jaw necrosis after dental implant surgery might be related with oral and/or intravenous bisphosphonates. Wide resection of necrotic bone, collagen graft, and primary closure are key factors for successful healing.

Incidence and mortality of spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage in Hong Kong from 2002 to 2010: a Hong Kong hospital authority clinical management system database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ninety-five percent of the Hong Kong population is Chinese, and no previous epidemiological study has focused on spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in Hong Kong. These data would have significant public health implications and can guide future resource allocations and service development in Hong Kong. The aim of this study was to investigate the local incidences of spontaneous SAH and 1-year mortality rates in Hong Kong, with the respective time trends in recent years. METHODS: Data from the Clinical Management System database of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority were used to examine the incidence of SAH and 1-year mortality rates among the Hong Kong population for the 2002-2010 period. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated by the direct method using the standard population given in World Health Organization World Standard Population 2000-2025. RESULTS: Crude SAH incidences increased from 5.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2002 to 7.5 in 2010. Standardized SAH incidences increased from 4.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2002 to 5.6 in 2010. Crude 1-year mortality rates decreased from 43% in 2002 to 19% in 2010, and the standardized 1-year mortality rate decreased from 38% in 2002 to 19% in 2010. CONCLUSION: The Hong Kong SAH incidence was 7.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2010, and an increasing trend over time was noted. The 1-year mortality rates decreased from 43% in 2002 to 19% in 2010, in accordance with the worldwide trend.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

INTRODUCTION: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. METHODS: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. RESULTS: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.